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 },
 "edges": [
  {
   "id": "E1",
   "from": "①",
   "to": "②",
   "sign": "+",
   "label": "油价 → 通胀预期",
   "rule": "Δ油 与 Δ盈亏平衡通胀 60 日相关 > 0.3",
   "metric": 0.353,
   "status": "active"
  },
  {
   "id": "E2",
   "from": "②",
   "to": "③",
   "sign": "+",
   "label": "通胀 → 美联储紧",
   "rule": "(盈亏平衡通胀 90 日 ≥ +0.2pp 或 实际利率 90 日 ≥ +0.25pp)且 资产负债表 90 日 ≤ +0.5%",
   "metric": {
    "bei_90d_pp": 0.08000000000000007,
    "real10_90d_pp": 0.20999999999999996,
    "walcl_90d_pct": 0.000922728799246153
   },
   "status": "idle"
  },
  {
   "id": "E3",
   "from": "③",
   "to": "⑤",
   "sign": "−",
   "label": "实际利率 → 黄金/BTC",
   "rule": "Δ实际利率 与 Δ黄金 60 日相关 < −0.3(BTC 同列参考)",
   "metric": {
    "gold": -0.2432,
    "btc": -0.1226
   },
   "status": "idle"
  },
  {
   "id": "E4",
   "from": "①",
   "to": "④",
   "sign": "+ (开关 B 开)",
   "label": "油价 → 美元",
   "rule": "Δ油 与 Δ美元 60 日相关 > 0.2 = 出口国逻辑;< −0.2 = 1973 型",
   "metric": 0.1569,
   "status": "idle"
  },
  {
   "id": "E5",
   "from": "②",
   "to": "③",
   "sign": "+ (Gromen/Hayes 的边)",
   "label": "赤字 → 美联储被迫接盘",
   "rule": "30Y > 5.0% 且 资产负债表 90 日 > +1%(≈ 年化 $2,700 亿,渐进印钞的量级)—— 两条同时成立才算",
   "note": "只有 yield_above_5 成立、walcl 不动 = Gromen 2026-01 的「印钞晚到 / 美联储袖手」状态;他当时标为尾巴,2026-09 成了现实",
   "metric": {
    "dgs30": 5.29,
    "walcl_90d_pct": 0.000922728799246153
   },
   "status": "idle",
   "partial": {
    "yield_above_5": true,
    "walcl_growing_gt_1pct": false
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "E6",
   "from": "④",
   "to": "⑤",
   "sign": "+",
   "label": "央行储备结构 → 黄金",
   "rule": "WGC 央行净购金近 4 季 > 700 吨(手工季更)",
   "metric": 841.0,
   "status": "active"
  }
 ],
 "switches": {
  "A": {
   "label": "冲击类型",
   "state": "neutral",
   "oil_60d_pct": 0.23712876963650964,
   "hy_oas_60d_pp": 0.6999999999999997,
   "rule": "油 60 日 > +15% 且 HY 利差 60 日 < +0.5pp = 供给型;HY 利差 > +1pp 且油不涨 = 金融型;两者都动 = 滞胀"
  },
  "B": {
   "label": "美国净能源出口国",
   "state": true,
   "asof": "2025",
   "source": "EIA Monthly Energy Review, Table 1.1 (total primary energy net exports positive since 2019); https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/",
   "note": "手工常量,每年更新一次。开关 B 决定 E4 的符号:出口国时油涨→美元涨;进口国时油涨→美元跌(1973/2008 型)。"
  }
 },
 "wgc": [
  {
   "quarter": "2024Q3",
   "tonnes": 186.0,
   "source": "World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q3 2024"
  },
  {
   "quarter": "2024Q4",
   "tonnes": 333.0,
   "source": "World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q4 2024"
  },
  {
   "quarter": "2025Q1",
   "tonnes": 244.0,
   "source": "World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q1 2025"
  },
  {
   "quarter": "2025Q2",
   "tonnes": 166.0,
   "source": "World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q2 2025"
  },
  {
   "quarter": "2025Q3",
   "tonnes": 220.0,
   "source": "World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q3 2025"
  },
  {
   "quarter": "2025Q4",
   "tonnes": 275.0,
   "source": "World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q4 2025 (待核:凭记忆填入)"
  },
  {
   "quarter": "2026Q1",
   "tonnes": 57.0,
   "source": "World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 (Q1 revised down to 57t)"
  },
  {
   "quarter": "2026Q2",
   "tonnes": 289.0,
   "source": "World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026"
  }
 ],
 "stale_series": [
  "FEDFUNDS"
 ],
 "fetch_errors": {
  "GOLD_LBMA": "HTTP Error 403: Forbidden",
  "GOLD_YAHOO": "HTTP Error 429: Too Many Requests"
 },
 "disclaimer": "观察工具,不是交易信号。边的状态是规则判定,不是因果证明。"
}